JR Tips Money Management System

A lot of people lose a lot of money in sports betting. The cause of these losses often are less about bad luck and poor research than they are about lack of discipline. While we at JR Tips pride ourselves on quality sports picks that maximize a bettor's chances of winning any given game, the wise handicapper knows that it won't win every time. Handicappers have their hot and cold streaks like anyone else. It is important to be able to maximize the value of the hot streaks, minimize the impact of the cold, and most importantly, play to the strong statistical average that professional picks provide to reliably come out ahead in your betting. To do this, you need to manage your money.

So we asked ourselves the question: what is the best way to manage money, to ensure both the greatest profit and the least risk. We studied our competition, made a few of our own deductions, and came up with a set of possibilities to test. As time goes on, we expect to test a number of other possibilities, and expand upon our system.

TESTING METHODOLOGY

Our testing was done using a program that simulated numerous seasons of football betting, using an assumption of betting 110% to win 100%. It abstracts the choices that go into choosing what bets to place where by randomization within set parameters determined by the betting system used, and using a given percentage chance of winning a bet, randomly determines the outcome of seven games per simulated week for sixteen weeks per simulated season, updating bankrolls, detecting streaks, and changing bets throughout. Once it's done, it does it again...as many times as we want. We used 10,000 simulated seasons to calculate our statistics. You can run your own tests here!

The system incorporates the following variables: A bankroll, which forms the basis of how much money the bettor is willing to put into the season. A bet percent, which determines how much of the bettor's bankroll it will bet each week. A system, which is the money management system it uses. A win percent, which determines what the percentage chance is that the bettor will pick the right game. In our testing, we ran each of our four systems through 10,000 seasons using three different bet percentages - a cautious 10% per week, a more aggressive 30%, and a high-risk 50%. At each level, we tested three different win percentages - 53%, what you would expect from a typical bettor; 58%, which you can expect from a reasonably skilled professional handicapper, and 62%, our average at JR Tips. In addition, we used a much more randomized system to represent the range of typical, undisciplined bettors, who might call it quits early, go beyond the limits of their bankroll, bet only a few games, and so on. Finally, we tested how our undisciplined system works when betting only one game per week.

We gathered the following pieces of data in each test: the lowest and highest percentage of the starting bankroll held at the end of the season (to show the extreme highs and lows possible), the average percentage (which appears to be inflated by high results and thus not particularly useful for comparisons), and the median percentage. We also calculated what percentage of seasons were "wins" (the bettor coming out ahead) and which were "losses". Finally, we calculated what percent of seasons were "excellent" (500%+ improvement), "great" (200%+ improvement), "good" (less than 200% improvement), "poor" (less than 50% loss), "bad" (less than 80% loss), and "flops" (greater than 80% loss of the bankroll). We also created a rough point system assigning 5 points per excellent percent, 2 per great, 1 per good, -1 per poor, -2 per bad, and -5 per flop, to get a general look at the system's overall performance.

THE SYSTEMS

We tested four different money management systems, plus a fifth highly randomized system. The theory is simple; if you have an above-average chance of winning any given game (and, with professional picks, you generally do), then by playing to averages and statistics, you are likely to come out ahead, where if you chase your losses, put all your hope into one or two games, and don't bet with discipline, you are simply making the whole thing more random. When you get professional picks, you have a better chance of winning than losing. More randomness favors the less likely result!

It is worth noting, though, that you need statistics and averages on your side for these systems to succeed. To that end, you want an above average chance of winning any given game, and to bet every game in a given week. For this reason, and particularly with the more aggressive strategic and streak systems, we cannot assure results with these systems unless someone is also using JR Tips picks, and taking advantage of our high 62% average win rate.

But while winning is important, let's be serious. Sports betting is a form of entertaining, and going penny-ante week after week, especially when you're on a streak is just dull and a waste of good luck alike. A certain amount of additional risk is acceptable if it creates much greater potential for reward. If you're doing well, why not try to do even better. With these theories in mind, we tested four systems to see how each performed:

Cautious: Our cautious system took our baseline theories and leaned in favor of minimizing losses by keeping a certain amount of the winnings out of the bankroll. That way, if you do well early on, and hit a run of bad luck later, you lose less money.

Strategic: This tactic used our base system idea with no modifiers, focusing on a balance between exponential growth and mitigated losses.

Streak: The streak system was a bit more risk for greater rewards, but strategically assigned risk; when you're winning big, you can take bigger risks. If you lose, you probably still wind up better than, or not much worse than, your starting point. If you win? It's even greater growth!

Focused: This tactic emphasizes stability, declining exponential growth to keep a steady upward progression with v

UNDISCIPLINED BETTING

It should come as no surprise that, in terms of profitable to unprofitable seasons, the undisciplined betting styles we tested had a notable reduction in results. That is not to say that they don't have their lures; they did, in fact, generate a greater flat percentage of excellent seasons (500% or better improvement over the initial bankroll) than most of the other systems in most cases (at higher bet percentages and win rates, and simply on average, the streak system exceeded them). However, they also had a much greater rate of losses to wins, and they ran a significantly higher risk of flop seasons. Certainly, it doesn't help that the undisciplined bettor is not certain to stay within the limits of its bankroll. All in all, you get what you expect from typical gambling; yes, there is a chance at very high rewards, but there is also a high chance of losing most of your money. The real weakness of the undisciplined styles came to the fore in the point system, where they performed significantly below the other systems, often being in double-digits, single-digits, or even negative while the other systems were scoring over 100 or 200 points.

MANAGING YOUR MONEY

To manage your money properly, you have to get into the proper mindset. Your bankroll is spent from the moment the season begins; don't build your bankroll with funds that you need to live on or want to use on other things. Some people spend their disposable income throwing big parties; others on the latest high-tech entertainment systems; still others on going out to various amusements. You're spending it on sports betting.

Once you have your bankroll, that's it. You do not add additional funds to it from outside. Either you cover your losses with wins, or you get out of the game. This is the single most important part of managing your money.

The next most important part is making sure you have an above-average chance of winning, and you bet every game. You need both of these things to be successful. Your average competent bettor might have about a 53% chance of winning a bet; that's not bad, but not great; with caution and good choices, it can come out ahead, but there's about an even chance of losing. If the bettor only has a 53% chance of picking correctly in a few games out of each week, its losses become all the more significant.

A talented handicapper, on the other hand, might well pull an average of a 58% chance of winning any given game (and a really good one might even get 62% or so), and more importantly, should be able to hold to that average with almost any game being played. This is why it can really help to get quality picks in addition to using proper money management tactics.

CHOOSING YOUR SYSTEM

Note: Most of the information here, aside from certain key points, are based on the averages across all tests. Certain systems do perform better at different win or bet rates than others. To see all the data we collected and make your own comparisons, click here

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Each system does have its strengths and weaknesses. The focused system had the highest chance of achieving a win of some sort; averaging the win rates of all nine test methods, it came out with a total of 79.58% seasons providing some sort of profit. Most of those extra wins wound up being "good"; it turned a profit, but not a particularly significant one. While it was competitive with the other styles in terms of "great" seasons, it has the dubious distinction of being the only style to never receive an excellent season across all tests. Additionally, it had the highest flop rate of the management systems, sometimes being the only one of them to flop, and on average being the only one with a higher than 1% flop rate (though even then it was only 2.41%; way better than the 9.7% and 18.1% of the Undisciplined and One Game systems). Resultantly, it scored the lowest average points of the actual systems, at 67.4 on average (for comparison, the undisciplined systems scored -1.8 and -43.6 respectively, just so we're clear on why you want to manage your money). In short, it's a fine system for winning more often than losing, but doesn't do enough to mitigate a major loss, while removing any real chance of a major win, barring truly amazing win rates.

The cautious system ranked next, with 71.7 points. Similar to the focused system, it's advantage is in reduction of risk, and indeed, it was second-best (after focused) as far as wins to losses on average. While it didn't win quite as often, it had a (slight) chance of getting excellent seasons, unlike the focused system. More importantly, it had the lowest flop rate of all the systems, averaging to less than 1/5 of 1 percent on average, less than 1/100th the flop chance of the undisciplined bettor betting one game per week. It did have a (very slightly) higher chance of a bad season than the focused system, and a greater chance of a poor one, with somewhat lower good and great seasons. This makes it a good system for bettors who like to play aggressively when they're winning, but stay protected from big losses. Even so, the areas where it shines involve sufficient degrees of bad luck, that it probably isn't a worthwhile system for general use.

Third in rank was the strategic system, with an average of 80.4 points. Being the baseline system, it did its job properly without particularly shining. It had a credible win rate, kept flops to a minimum, scored great and excellent seasons every so often, and generally performed as you would want from a money management system, offering a good opportunity for reward while mitigating the biggest risks. In all, it is an excellent system to use over the general course of things. Notably, on the average, the strategic system actually beat the undisciplined system in terms of excellent seasons (though not when betting only one game), proving that you can potentially win big even more easily while protecting yourself, a classic case of having your cake and eating it too.

Finally is the streak system, and with the testing complete, it is our favorite (and arguably the statistical best, with an 86.1 point score on average). The streak system takes the main advantages of the strategic system - a solid win rate with a good degree of protection from very poor seasons - and lets the aggressive bettor cut loose and try for some really exponential growth when it's on a roll. Of all the systems the streak system had the highest chance of excellent seasons, in exchange for a slightly lower win rate (so it lost a few more seasons, but more of the seasons it did win were big wins). It even outperformed the undisciplined systems in terms of excellent seasons on average, even when betting only one game. However, where they suffered with a greatly reduced win rate and much higher bad and flop rate, the streak system still won more than 70% of seasons, and barely over 5% were bad or flops (less than 1% being flops, compared to 9.7% and 18.01%). The streak system also has the distinction of far and away the highest results for its best seasons.

CONCLUSION

There are three main goals of money management in sports betting: having a good chance of coming away with some form of profit; if you do, maximizing the profit you can acquire; and if you can't, minimizing the loss. On average, the strategic and streak systems fulfilled these goals the best, with the strategic system being somewhat more cautious, and the streak for more aggressive bettors. Cautious beginning bettors, or those relying on their own picks or those of other handicappers, however, can still take advantage of the cautious and focused systems. In any event, undisciplined betting is to be avoided; with professional picks, the more likely result is a win, and randomness favors the less likely result.

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Creating the JR Tips Money Management System

TESTING METHODOLOGY

THE SYSTEMS

UNDISCIPLINED BETTING

MANAGING YOUR MONEY

CHOOSING YOUR SYSTEM

CONCLUSION